摘要
针对提前1小时的超短期负荷预测,在充分分析负荷特性的基础上,提出了基于自回归模型的超短期负荷预测,并利用拐点与负荷变化率的关系对预测结果修正。算例分析表明,该方法可以取得较高的预测精度。
Aiming at one hour ahead load forecasting,this paper presents a ultra-short term load forecasting method based on autoregression model In the basis of analyzing load character thoroughly,corrects forecasting result by using the relationship between inflection point and load variation ratio.The result of study indicates that this method can gain a higher forecasting precision.
出处
《继电器》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第S1期394-397,共4页
Relay
关键词
超短期负荷预测
自回归模型
负荷变化率
ultra-short term load forecasting
autoregression model
.load variance ratio
