摘要
准确预测税收总量,对于有效地进行市场经济条件下的宏观调控有着重要的意义。定性分析了我国1992到1997年的税收数据,引入了均值生成算子对原始数据进行处理,建立了GM(1,1)模型,从而发现、掌握税收数据的变化规律,并对未来数据进行了定量预测。为了充分利用新信息,进一步提高预测精度,对数据进行了新陈代谢,再次建模预测。结果表明,用GM(1,1)模型对税收数据进行预测,不仅所需样本小、信息少,而且建模简单,具有很好的预测精度。
Forecasting the tax gross exactly is significant to carry on the macroscopic regulation efficiently under the market economy .The sample of tax data (1992-1997) in china was analyzed qualitatively .The original data was processed by the introduction of the average-generating arithmetic operators .The GM(1,1) mode was built . Variation rules of the tax data were discovered and mastered .The future data was forecasted quantitatively. In order to make full use of the new information and improve the prediction precision further, the data was processed by metabolism , and the model was built and a second prediction was made .The results show that using the GM(1,1) model to forecast the tax data involves a smaller sample and less information. It’s easier to build the model and the prediction precision is better.
出处
《系统仿真学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第z2期971-972,共2页
Journal of System Simulation
关键词
定性分析
税收预测
均值生成算子
GM(1
1)模型
新陈代谢
qualitative analysis
ax forecasting
average-generating arithmetic operators
the GM(1,1) model
metabolism
