摘要
该文通过ARMA模型分析时间序列的平稳性,以1950——1998年北京市城乡居民定期储蓄所占比例序列为具体分析对象,用SAS软件拟合模型,并作预测。结果表明,预测值和真实值接近,在实际应用中预测较准对于经济研究和政府制定经济政策起到重要作用。
The stability of time series and the proportion of fixed saving in Beijing are analyzed by ARMA model in this paper. Then an ARMA model is constructed, and testing data are forecasted by SAS software, shown as figures in tables. As a result,forecasting data obtained from the ARMA model simulates the actual data well. The result is very important for economic research and policy making of government.
出处
《嘉兴学院学报》
2006年第z1期183-187,共5页
Journal of Jiaxing University
