摘要
目的 探索登革热发病与伊蚊种群动态变化和气候因素的关系。方法 收集广东省 1990～ 2 0 0 1年的登革热发病资料 ,收集了潮州市的 1995～ 2 0 0 1年伊蚊媒介监测资料及同期的平均气温、最低气温、最高气温、日照时间、降雨量、相对湿度等气象资料 ,用相关分析和多元逐步回归分析的方法进行分析。结果 与媒介伊蚊密度有关的气象参数是 :降雨量、日照时间、降雨天数、平均气温、最低平均气温、相对湿度 ;经逐步回归分析得到回归方程 :YBI=2 4 .80 0 +0 .82 6 X1 +0 .0 2 0X2 - 0 .4 18X3其中 X1 代表最低平均气温、X2 代表降雨量、X3代表相对湿度。登革热发病的 L ogis-tic回归方程 :P(1) =1/[1+e- ( - 7.850 + 0 .391 BI) ]。讨论 气候因素对伊蚊媒介密度的影响是复杂的 ,但其主要影响因素是最低平均气温、降雨量、相对湿度 ;影响登革热发病的主要因素是伊蚊密度(BI)。当然伊蚊密度的变化和登革热的发病还与当地居民生活水平。
Objective To explore the relation between probability of dengue episode and aedes density and clim ate factor. Methods Collecting data of dengue fever case,surveillance result of aedes vector and climate (including average air tem perature,lowest air tem perature,highest air temperature,sunlight,rainfall and relative humidity) . The data is analyzed by correlation analy- sis,stepwise regression and logistic regression method. Results Meteorology param eter correlat- ing with aedes density are rainfall,sunlight,average air tem perature,lowest average air tem pera- ture and rlativ humidity;by stepwise regression analysis,the regression equation:YBI=2 4 .80 0 + 0 .82 6 X1 +0 .0 2 0 X2 - 0 .4 18X3X1 represents lowest average air temperature,X2 rainfall and X3 relative humidity;L ogistic regression equation:P(1) =1/ [1+e- ( - 7.850 + 0 .391 BI) ].Discussions The influence of climate factor on vector aedes density is com plicated,butits primary influence factors are lowestaverage air temperature,rainfall and relative humidity;the prim ary influence factors of dengue episode are aedes density.
出处
《疾病控制杂志》
2002年第z1期14-17,共4页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control and Prevention
基金
全军"十五"指令性课题 (0 1L0 78)
第四军医大学"创新工程"课题 (CX99F0 0 9)
