摘要
从概率的角度出发 ,应用Markov模型分析了腾格里沙漠东南缘近 2 0a来沙尘暴变化趋势 ,结果显示 :①2 0 0 0年发生的强沙尘暴和特强沙尘暴的概率各为 0 .5 ,而事实上 2 0 0 0年发生沙尘暴 11次 ,接近预测结果。② 2 0 0 0年发生伴随降雨的特强沙尘暴概率为 0 .2 5 ,不伴随降雨的沙尘暴概率为 0 .5 ,这和 2 0 0 0年中国北方干旱 ,很少发生伴随降雨的沙尘暴的事实一致。③随着时间序列的延长 ,Markov模型可成为预测沙尘暴发生的一条有效途径。
From the angle of probability, the Markov Model has been applied to analyze the variation trend of sand\|dust storms occurred in the southeastern Tengger Desert during the recent 20 years. The results show that the probabilities of the strong and the extreme\|strong sand\|dust storms should be 0.5 individually in 2000, which is near the actually happened times of 11 in this year. In 2000, the probability of the extreme\|strong sand\|dust storms accompanied with precipitation was 0.25, while that of without precipitation was 0.5, which was in accordance with the fact that few sand\|dust storms with precipitation happened in dry northern China in this year. If the time\|series are long enough the Markov Model can be effectively used to predicting the happening of the sand\|dust storms.
出处
《中国沙漠》
CSCD
北大核心
2001年第z1期72-75,共4页
Journal of Desert Research
基金
中国科学院资源环境领域知识创新工程重大项目 (KZCX2 10 0 0 15 )
国家自然科学基金 (499710 13 )资助
