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Assessment model of dam operation risk based on monitoring data 被引量:5

Assessment model of dam operation risk based on monitoring data
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摘要 Although the dams produce remarkable social and economic benefits, the threat made by unsafe dams to the life and property of people who live in the lower river area is un-negligible. Based on the monitoring data which reflect the safety condition of dams, the risk degree concept is proposed and the analysis system and model for evaluating risk degree (rate) are established in this paper by combining the reliability theory and field monitoring data. The analysis method for risk degree is presented based on Bayesian approach. A five-grade risk degree system for dam operation risk and corresponding risk degree is put forward according to the safety condition of dams. The operation risks of four cascade dams on some river are analyzed by the model and approach presented here and the result is adopted by the owner. Although the dams produce remarkable social and economic benefits, the threat made by unsafe dams to the life and property of people who live in the lower river area is un-negligible. Based on the monitoring data which reflect the safety condition of dams, the risk degree concept is proposed and the analysis system and model for evaluating risk degree (rate) are established in this paper by combining the reliability theory and field monitoring data. The analysis method for risk degree is presented based on Bayesian approach. A five-grade risk degree system for dam operation risk and corresponding risk degree is put forward according to the safety condition of dams. The operation risks of four cascade dams on some river are analyzed by the model and approach presented here and the result is adopted by the owner.
出处 《Science China(Technological Sciences)》 SCIE EI CAS 2007年第z1期144-152,共9页 中国科学(技术科学英文版)
基金 Supported by Key Project of Chinese National Programs for Fundamental Research and Development (2002CB412707) Key Project of NNSF and Yalongjiang Hydroelectric Development Joint Research Fund (50539110, 50539030) Science and Technology Support Plan (20006BAC14B03) National Natural Science Foundation Major Project (50539010) National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50579010)
关键词 DAM MONITORING data operation RISK DEGREE analysis model dam, monitoring data, operation risk degree, analysis model
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参考文献4

  • 1[1]Liu N.Research on Constructional Target Decision (in Chinese).Beijing:China Waterpower Press,2006
  • 2[2]Wu Z R,Gu C S.Defect Inspection and Health Diagnosis of Great Hydro Concrete Structure (in Chinese).Beijing:Higher Education Press,2005
  • 3[3]Salmon et al.Risk analysis on dam safety.Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information,1995,15:1-7
  • 4[4]Kajjper H,Vtijling J.Probabilistic Approach and Risk Analysis.Netherlands:A.A.Balkema,Rotterdam,1998

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