摘要
Better correlation exists between the activity of tropical cyclones affecting East China and Shanghai and the concurrent signals of SSTA in tropical Pacific. In an attempt to justify this statistic finding, a four-dimensional variational data assimilation system is established to optimize the initial fields of a hybrid air-sea coupled model. The prediction skill of tropical SSTA is improved. Long-term statistical models for predicting annual TC frequency affecting East China area and Shanghai city are developed based on 37-year products of this model and the forecast trials have achieved satisfactory results in 1998 and 1999.
Better correlation exists between the activity of tropical cyclones affecting East China and Shanghai and the concurrent signals of SSTA in tropical Pacific. In an attempt to justify this statistic finding, a four-dimensional variational data assimilation system is established to optimize the initial fields of a hybrid air-sea coupled model. The prediction skill of tropical SSTA is improved. Long-term statistical models for predicting annual TC frequency affecting East China area and Shanghai city are developed based on 37-year products of this model and the forecast trials have achieved satisfactory results in 1998 and 1999.
基金
Natural Science Foundation of China (49705063)
projects funded by the national "9th five-year development plan" key scientific
