摘要
从我国2011年上半年面临较大节能压力的宏观背景出发,分析了我国现阶段电力供应结构与电力消费部门结构的趋势特征,并从电力供需特征视角解读和分析了我国节能压力形成的根源。分析认为,工业结构的"重型化"特征、电力供应向火电集中和生活端能耗上升是使当前节能和节电形势较为严峻的主要原因,但总体能耗变化态势可能依然维持"前紧后松"过程,节能压力将在下半年得到缓解。不过,因受到结构重型化、主要节能降耗政策的效应衰减、消费升级产生较大能源需求以及能源价改滞后等因素的作用,未来我国节能降耗的难度和不确定性可能进一步上升。
Starting from the macroscopic background of the great energy saving pressure up on China in the first half of 2011, this paper analyzes the present stage's characteristics of China's electric powe supply structure and department’s consumption structure,and futher investigates the source of energy conservation pressure from the angle of viewing the features of power supply and demand.The conclusions show that the energy conservation pressure Criticaely originated in the rapid development of basic industries, the power supply's centering on thermal electricity, and the rise of energy consumption in livelihood. the energy consumption tendency will manifest the 'front-loaded'.But becasued of the rapid development of basic industries, the effect attenuaction of energy policies,the energy consumption increasing rely on trading up,and the lagging of reforms in the pricing system for energy,the difficulty and nondeterminacy in energy saving will noticeably increase.
出处
《科技促进发展》
2011年第9期37-42,共6页
Science & Technology for Development
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(10zd&010):"十二五"时期宏观经济运行动态监测分析研究
首席专家:高铁梅
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71171035):基于结构突变和截面相关的省际碳排放面板协整检验方法
负责人:王维国
国家社科基金青年项目(11CJY008):"十二五"时期可持续节能路径分析研究
负责人:潘祺志
关键词
节能降耗
结构变化
电力供需特征
energy conservation and consumption reduction, structural transformation, features of power supply and demand
