摘要
[Objective] The response of surface water resources on climate changes was studied.[Method] By dint of monthly average temperature and precipitation in 45 meteorological stations in Jilin Province from 1960 to 2000,monthly runoff in 56 hydrological stations in Songhuajiang and Liaohe region,the surface runoff change and the response of surface water resources to climate change in 41 years were expounded.[Result] The runoff of Songliao region was limited during 1960s and 1970s.It began to increase slowly in the early 1980s.Since 1990s,there were distinct fluctuation of annual runoff and it was decreasing in general.EOF analysis suggested that the runoff of Songliao region was decreasing gradually from south to the north.The central gradient was small and runoff was evenly distributed.MK test result showed that the annual runoff in Songliao region had large fluctuation before 1980s and after 1990s.The response of surface runoff on climate and precipitation changes in Jilin Province was distinct and had strong relevance as well as certain lagging.Based on the analysis of the relation of rivers runoff and meteorological elements changes,statistics forecast model between river surface runoff and meteorological elements was constructed.Runoff prediction value and measured value had good relation.The corresponding river surface runoff changes can be assessed based on the changes of meteorological elements.[Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for the development and utilization of surface water resources in Jilin.
[Objective] The response of surface water resources on climate changes was studied.[Method] By dint of monthly average temperature and precipitation in 45 meteorological stations in Jilin Province from 1960 to 2000,monthly runoff in 56 hydrological stations in Songhuajiang and Liaohe region,the surface runoff change and the response of surface water resources to climate change in 41 years were expounded.[Result] The runoff of Songliao region was limited during 1960s and 1970s.It began to increase slowly in the early 1980s.Since 1990s,there were distinct fluctuation of annual runoff and it was decreasing in general.EOF analysis suggested that the runoff of Songliao region was decreasing gradually from south to the north.The central gradient was small and runoff was evenly distributed.MK test result showed that the annual runoff in Songliao region had large fluctuation before 1980s and after 1990s.The response of surface runoff on climate and precipitation changes in Jilin Province was distinct and had strong relevance as well as certain lagging.Based on the analysis of the relation of rivers runoff and meteorological elements changes,statistics forecast model between river surface runoff and meteorological elements was constructed.Runoff prediction value and measured value had good relation.The corresponding river surface runoff changes can be assessed based on the changes of meteorological elements.[Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for the development and utilization of surface water resources in Jilin.
作者
CAI Zhe1,2,TAN Gui-rong2,SUN Li3,QU Jing-hua3 1.Jinan Meteorological Bureau,Jinan 250002,China
2.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science & Engineering,Nanjing 210044,China
3.Jilin Meteorological Scientific Research Institute,Changchun 130062,China
