摘要
负荷预测是电网规划和经济运行的重要参考依据,中长期负荷动态变化会受到多重因素影响,使用常规方法对负荷进行预测不尽合理。针对奉化市区域规划特点,建立灰色预测模型,在对历史负荷数据进行平滑处理的基础上,预测了奉化市2013年至2017年的全社会电力负荷;结果表明该方法具有工程实用价值,能满足电网规划要求。
The load forecasting is an important references for power grid planning and economic operation,multiple factors influencing the medium-long term load dynamic changes,using conventional methods to forecast the load is not reasonable.Combining with the characteristics of regional planning of Fenghua,established a gray forecast model,forecast the total power load of Fenghua from 2013 to 2017 based on the historical data processed by triple smooth method.The result of gray forecasting method is proved to be practicable and meet the requirements of power grid planning.
出处
《安徽电力》
2013年第3期27-29,共3页
Anhui Electric Power
关键词
奉化市
负荷预测
灰色模型
三点平滑法
Fenghua city
load forecasting
gray forecasting
gray model
triple smooth method
