摘要
本文在梳理和比较当前商业银行信用风险评估技术的基础上,引出了隐含不良贷款率指标。通过汇总计算非金融上市企业相关财务数据,我们对国际、国内上市非金融企业的隐含不良贷款率与商业银行不良贷款率进行了比较分析,对利用隐含不良贷款率指标加强商业银行信用风险预判的有效性进行了研究。结果表明,虽然该指标存在局限性,但在揭示企业信贷风险方面仍具有一定的先导性和可参考性,可以用于辅助预判银行信贷风险。
This paper discusses the implementation of implied NPL ratio after introducing and comparing the techniques of credit risk evaluation in commercial banks.By collecting and calculating financial data of listed nonfinancial firms,we make a comparable analysis between the implied NPL ratios of listed non-financial corporations and the NPL ratios of commercial banks both in china and abroad.The paper also analyzes how to enhance the effectiveness in predicting credit risk in commercial banks based on the implied NPL ratios.We find that although there are limitations,this indicator is to a certain extend a precursor and referable in revealing the credit risk of the non-financial firms,and can help in the prediction of credit risk of commercial banks.
出处
《金融监管研究》
2012年第10期48-63,共16页
Financial Regulation Research
