摘要
人口问题是一个国家或地区可持续发展的前提。人口规模是否合理,对一个国家或地区未来的经济、社会和生态环境可持续发展影响深远。运用马尔萨斯人口模型、Logistic增长模型和线性函数三种理论模型,利用《玉溪市统计年鉴》统计数据对玉溪市2010—2020年的人口发展规模做出预测,预测结果显示3种模型均取得了较好的模拟效果。Logistic增长模型的预测值最小,故采用其预测值作为预测结果。
Population is the sustainable development premise of a country or a region,so whether population size is reasonable or not has great influence on the sustainable development of economy,society and environment in a country or a region in the future,thus predicting the development of population becomes necessiavy.The population development during 2010 to 2020 of Yuxi city is predicted in this study by applying three theoretical models: Malthus population model,Logistic growth model and linear function,and the population data of 'Yuxi Statistical Yearbook' as well.The results of study show that all of the three models obtain good simulated effects,the average relative error of the three are small in the model verification process.Since the minimal value appears in the Logistic growth model,its predictive value is taken as the result.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第S1期17-19,共3页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
云南省教育厅基金项目资助(编号:08Y0298)
