摘要
粮食安全涉及众多因素,已有研究一般采用不同指标体系来测定粮食安全状况。本文则从粮食供给和需求角度构建目标函数模型,利用四川省农户实际调查数据和相关年份的统计数据,对"耕地去粮化"趋势对粮食安全的影响进行了估计。在模型假设条件下的估计结果表明,按四川省目前的"耕地去粮化"水平计算,四川省和全国均不存在粮食安全问题;但如果放松某些假设引入变量实际数据重新计算后的结果表明,四川省粮食安全指数(SI=-0.1631))与全国粮食安全指数(SI=-0.2923)均为负数,且后者比前者小,这表明全国与四川省都出现了粮食不安全状况,且全国粮食安全状况比四川省差。
Food safety is related to many factors and the existed research generally uses different index system to test its situation. From the two basic perspectives of supply and demand in food,this paper constructs an objective function to estimate the influence of replacement of food crop on the cultivated land on food security with the farm data surveyed by us and the yearbook data.The results of the study under model assumptions show that food insecurity doesn't exist in Sichuan and China when the level of replacement of food crop on the cultivated land is at Sichuan's P index.However,the results recalculated with actual statistic of variables demonstrate that the food security indexes of Sichuan(SI=-0.1631)and China(SI=-0.2923)are both negatives,of which the latter is smaller, which illustrates that the food condition in both Sichuan and China is insecure;what's worse,the condition of national food security is more serious.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第S2期189-192,共4页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:70973101)
2011年度外国文教专家项目
西南民族大学2011年度中央高校基本科研业务费专项项目(编号:11SZYTH11)
关键词
“耕地去粮化”
粮食安全指数
实证分析
replacement of food crop on the cultivated land
food security index
empirical analysis
