摘要
利用 1 95 2～ 2 0 0 1年我国 1 60个测站汛期降水和前期 5 0 0hPa高度场和太平洋海温场资料以及三因子最佳子集回归求最大复相关系数的方法 ,把前期不同时间步长、不同时段的高度场和海温场同时作为预报因子与汛期降水求相关。结果发现 :前期两个场共同作为预报因子比把其中某场单独作为预报因子的相关要好。并且存在着较好的“隔多季度相关”现象。预报因子具有实际预报意义的最佳时段为上一年的 6～ 9月。影响我国汛期降水的最佳预报因子主要集中于高度场和海温场具有重要天气气候意义的关键区域。汛期降水可预报性在北方和长江以南均较好。
Based on the 160 station rainfall over China in flood season from 1952 to 2001, the preceding height field of 500 hPa, the SST field of the Pacific Ocean, and the three factors optimum subset regression, the correlation between preceding predictors fields of different time steps and different time intervals which are composed by 500 hPa height field and Pacific SST field, and rainfall field in flood season is studied The results indicate clearly that: (1) The correlation between preceding 500 hPa height Pacific SST field and rainfall field is better than that of between 500 hPa height and rainfall or between Pacific SST and rainfall field over China (2) There is an apparent phenomenon that correlation of multi seasons interval is good (3) In general, as far as predictors are concerned, the optimum time interval of being possessed of practical prodiction significance is from preceding June to preceding September (4) The early predictors of affecting rainfall in flood season over China mainly focus on key regions that have an importance significance of the weather climate (5) The predictability of precipitation in flood season over the northern China and in the south of Yangtze River is better than that of the rest areas in China
出处
《大气科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第3期405-414,共10页
Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
基金
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目G1 9980 40 90 5
国家自然科学基金资助项目40 0 65 0 0 1
中国科学院知识创新工程项目KZCX2 2 0 3资助
关键词
500
hPa高度场
海温场
汛期降水
最佳子集回归
500 hPa geopotential height field
Pacific SST field
rainfall in flood season
optimum subset regression
