摘要
采用线性分析方法和R/S方法,对鲁西北年降水量和年均气温的变化特点和趋势进行了分析。结果表明:近50a鲁西北气温呈上升趋势,变化率为0.22℃/10a,气温的Hurst指数为0.92,即当地未来气温增加的趋势可能还将持续;年降水量呈现减少趋势,变化率为28.8mm/10a,降水量的Hurst指数为0.61,即当地年降水量减少趋势可能还将持续;年平均气温的突变发生在1997年,而年降水量出现过3次突变,降水量的突变与气温的突变并不是同步发生的。
By using the methods of linear and R/S(Rescaled Range Analysis),the change and trends of annual precipitation and annual average temperature in Northwest of Shandong were analyzed.The results showed that the temperature increased in Northwest of Shandong in last 50 years with change rate 0.22℃/10a.Hurst index of temperature was 0.92,which indicated that temperature would increase in future.Annual precipitation decreased with change rate 28.8mm/10a.Hurst index of precipitation was 0.61,which indicated that the decreasing trend would continue.The abrupt of the annual average temperature occurred in 1997,while the abrupt of the annual precipitation occurred three times.The abrupt of the precipitation and temperature were not occurring simultaneously.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
2009年第S1期25-28,共4页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
关键词
鲁西北
气温
降水量
变化趋势
Northwest of Shandong
Temperature
Precipitation
Change trend
