摘要
陕西烟田蚜传病毒病的侵染源主要为油菜田，蚜传病毒病的发生程度与第一次迁入烟田的蚜虫量显著相关，以后烟田发病缓慢上升或维持一定水平，第二次迁入烟田蚜虫量与病毒病发生程度相关不大。预测模拟结果表明，第一次蚜虫迁飞高峰时百株烟草上有翅蚜量（X12）、2～4月份降水量（X4）、4月份平均气温（X13）与烟草蚜传病毒病的病株率极显著相关，模拟所得方程为；Y＝ 1．5973－0．0014X4＋0．6084X12－0．1079X13，回归检测结果历史符合率为98.5％以上。
The winter rape was the most important primary inoculum source of tobacco virusspread by aphids in Shaanxi. The occurrence degree of virus was highly correlated withthe aphid amount in its first migration but had nothing to do with the second migration.After the rapid growth of the virus disease cause by the first aphid migration in tobaccofields, its growth was slow and maintained a certain level for a period of time. The result of forecast simulate were that the percent of tobacco plants with virus symptom washighly correlated with the aphid amount per 100 plants in the first migration period(X12), the precipitation from February to April (X4) and the temperature in April(X13 ). The predicting model was y = 1. 5793 - 0. 0011X4 + 0. 6084X12 - 0. 1079X13 (F>F0.05). The realized percent with history date was 98. 95% by this forecasting model.
出处
《中国烟草学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
1998年第2期43-48,共6页
Acta Tabacaria Sinica
基金
国家烟草专卖局重点研究项目
关键词
烟草
蚜传病毒病
发展规律
预测预报
Tobacco Virus disease spread by aphid Occurring and developing regularity Forecasting
