摘要
The 'earthquake nucleation' is discussed in this paper. The acceleration is a property of the nucleation phase and is a necessary condition of earthquake instability too. If the acceleration property of this nucleating process is described by the equation dΩ/dt=C/(tf-t)n, the process can be summarized briefly that the rate of cumulative seismic release is proportional to the inverse power of the remaining time to failure. Based on this principle, the foreshock sequence of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake with Ms7.3, was analysed backward. It is stated clearly that the time-to-failure and magnitude of the mainshock can be predicted successfully if the coefficient r2 attains to the maximum. In the estimation of mainshock time, the error can generally be less than, or far less than,one-half the remaining time between the time of the last used data point and the mainshock.
The 'earthquake nucleation' is discussed in this paper. The acceleration is a property of the nucleation phase and is a necessary condition of earthquake instability too. If the acceleration property of this nucleating process is described by the equation dΩ/dt=C/(tf-t)n, the process can be summarized briefly that the rate of cumulative seismic release is proportional to the inverse power of the remaining time to failure. Based on this principle, the foreshock sequence of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake with Ms7.3, was analysed backward. It is stated clearly that the time-to-failure and magnitude of the mainshock can be predicted successfully if the coefficient r2 attains to the maximum. In the estimation of mainshock time, the error can generally be less than, or far less than,one-half the remaining time between the time of the last used data point and the mainshock.
