摘要
利用太原市1956-2012年气温资料,结合线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、主成分分析法及相关性分析法,根据选取的16个极端气温指标,分析了太原市各极值指数随时间的变化趋势、突变年份及其相互之间的关系。结果表明:冷夜日数、冷日日数、霜冻日数、冰冻日数、冷持续日数、日较差分别以-9.56 d/10a,-3.42 d/10a,-3.57 d/10a,-1.95 d/10a,-0.71 d/10a,-0.23℃/10a的趋势在减小,而暖夜日数、暖日日数、热夜日数、夏日日数、暖持续日数、生物生长季、日最高(低)气温的极低值、日最高(低)气温的月内极高值则分别以8.42 d/10a,4.95 d/10a,1.9 d/10a,2.44 d/10a,1.33 d/10a,1.77 d/10a,0.28℃/10a,0.92℃/10a,0.30℃/10a,0.26℃/10a的趋势增加;冷指数(冷夜日数、日最低气温的极低值)的变暖幅度明显大于暖指数(暖夜日数、日最低气温的极高值),夜指数(暖夜日数、冷夜日数)的变暖幅度明显大于昼指数(暖日日数、冷日日数);各冷指数间、各暖指数间均为正相关关系,而冷指数与暖指数之间则呈负相关关系。
By use of temperature data observed in Taiyuan from 1956 to 2012,the methods of linear regression,Mann-Kendall examination,principal component analysis and correlation analysis were employed to analyze the change trend and mutations years of climate extremes as well as the relationship between them besed on sixteen indices of extreme temperature selected. The results are as follows: the occurrence of cold nights,cold days,frost days,ice days,cold spell duration days and diurnal variation temperature decrease by- 9. 56 /10 a,- 3. 42 /10 a,- 3. 57 /10 a,- 1. 95 /10 a,- 0. 71 /10 a and- 0. 23 /10 a,respectively,while the occurrence of warm nights,warm days,tropical nights,summer days,warm spell duration days,growing season length,minimum value of daily maximum( minimum) temperature,monthly maximum value of daily maximum( minimum) temperature shows increasing trends at rates of 8. 42 /10 a,4. 95 /10 a,1. 9 /10 a,2. 44 /10 a,1. 33 /10 a,1. 77 /10 a,0. 28 /10 a,0. 92 /10 a,0. 30 /10 a and 0. 26 /10 a,respectively. The amplitude of changes in cold indices( cold nights,monthly minimum value of daily minimum) are obviously greater than those of warm indices( warm nights,monthly maximum value of daily minimum). The change ranges of night indices( warm nights and cold nights) are larger than those of dayindices( warm days and cold days). The cold indices are positively correlated each other as well as warm indices while cold indices and warm indices are negatively correlated.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第1期77-87,共11页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(11&ZD097)
中科院黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室项目(SKLLQG1428)
关键词
太原市
极端气温
M-K检验
主成分分析法
Pearson相关系数
Taiyuan
extreme temperature
Mann-Kendall examination
principal component analysis
Pearson correlation coefficient
