摘要
针对气候暖化加剧区域水循环、增加洪旱灾害风险这一科学问题,利用1960-2005年全国588个气象台站资料,对基于标准化降雨蒸散指数的气象洪旱时空演变特征作了深入分析,并通过Copula函数与气温构建了二维联合分布函数,揭示了气温上升对中国气象洪旱极端事件发生的可能影响。研究发现,在不同的气温上升情景下,不同重现期的极端气象洪旱事件有着不同的响应。希望该研究对气候暖化背景下的中国防洪抗旱减灾及流域水资源管理能作出积极贡献。
Climate warming has a potential to aggravate regional hydrologic cycle and enhance the risk of floods and droughts. By use of the data of 588 meteorological observatories in China from 1960 to 2005,the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index-based meteorological flood and drought spatiotemporal evolution characteristics was analyzed,and through Copula function and air temperature,a two-dimensional joint distribution was extablished. The possible effect of temperature rise on occurrence of flood and drought extreme events in China was revealed. The results indicate that under different air temperature rise scenarios,the extreme events of meteorological droughts and floods with different return periods have different responses. It is hoped that the research may make an active contribution to flood and drought prerention and reduction,and water resources management of river basins.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第3期143-152,共10页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
新疆维吾尔自治区科技计划项目(201331104)
国家杰出青年科学基金项目(51425903)
中山大学滨海小流域自然地理综合过程观测与实验平台(2012年度)
