摘要
基于黄淮海地区(包括北京、天津、河北、河南、安徽、山东)107个气象台站1970-2012年日降水量及地形、河流、植被等数据,采用信息扩散方法、层次分析法、加权综合评价法,结合GIS空间技术,运用灾害风险评估原理,对黄淮海地区的夏玉米洪涝灾害综合风险进行了区划。结果表明:黄淮海地区夏玉米洪涝危险性整体偏高,高危险区在各省均有分布,主要在黄淮海西北部、中部及南部小部分地区,占总面积的17.91%;敏感性较高,高敏感区分布在黄淮海西北部及中部部分地区,占总面积的12.11%;易损性整体较低,高易损区很少,主要分布在黄淮海西北部、中部及南部部分地区,占总面积的5.50%;洪涝综合风险较高,高综合风险与危险性、敏感性及易损性高的地区相吻合,占总面积的11.19%。还对区划结果进行了验证,结果表明:分析所得结果与实际吻合效果很好。
Based on daily precipitation of 107 meteorological stations from 1970 to 2012 and data on terrain,rivers,vegetation et al in Huanghuaihai region( including Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,Henan,Anhui,Shandong),by using information diffusion method,analytic hierarchy process,weighting comprehensive evaluation method,combining GIS spatial analysis technology and applying the principles of disaster risk assessment,zoning of flood disaster risk of summer maize in Huanghuaihai region was carried out. Results show that flood risk of summer maize in Huanghuaihai region is on the high side overall,high- hazard zones are distributed in every provinces,mainly in the northwest,central and small portion of southern Huanghuaihai region and account for 17. 91% of the total area;sensitivity is higher,high sensitive areas are mainly distributed in northwest and central parts and account for12. 11% of the total area; vulnerability is overall lower,high vulnerability areas are rare and mainly in the northwest,central and small portion of southern Huanghuaihai and account for 5. 50% of the total area; flood comprehensive risk is overall high risk,the high risk areas are coincide with the areas of high hazard,sensitivity and vulnerability and account for 11. 19% of the total area. The zoning results were verified,results show that the actual occurrence of floods coincide with the results of this paper,the zoning effect is very well.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第3期235-243,共9页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306038)
关键词
夏玉米
洪涝灾害
风险区划
黄淮海地区
summer maize
flood disaster
risk zoning
Huanghuaihai region
