摘要
本文采用VEC模型研究离岸人民币汇率价差、资金存量与升贬值预期之间的联动关系。研究发现资金存量因素是影响离岸人民币汇率价差的主要决定因素,近些年香港离岸人民币市场发展的主要原因是持续的升值预期,而离岸人民币汇率价差的变动对于升贬值预期有重要影响。本文认为对离岸人民币汇率价差的研究必不可少,升贬值预期对发展离岸人民币市场具有关键作用;应进一步寻找香港离岸人民币市场发展的长效机制,以应对未来人民币汇率双向浮动的情况;应加强对离岸人民币汇率价差的监测分析。
This paper uses the VEC model to analyze the linkage between the exchange rate spreads, appreciation/depreciation expectation and the capital stock of offshore RMB. It is found that capital stock is a major determinant to influence the exchange rate spread of offshore RMB; in recent years, the development of offshore RMB market in Hong Kong is mainly due to the continued appreciation expectation, and the changes in the exchange rate spreads of offshore RMB impact the appreciation/depreciation expectation greatly. It's necessary to research the exchange rate spreads of offshore RMB. The appreciation/depreciation expectation plays a key role in the development of offshore RMB market. It is needed to search for a long-term mechanism for the development of offshore RMB market in Hong Kong, so as to cope with the future two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate. It also is needed to strengthen the monitoring and analysis of the exchange rate spread of offshore RMB.
出处
《金融论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第2期61-69,共9页
Finance Forum
