摘要
在理论上,养老金待遇调整机制对养老金待遇稳定性的保障是不确定的,同时,同一调待机制在不同环境下对养老金待遇稳定性的保障效应也并非一致。本文以我国2002-2012年省际面板数据为样本,采用工具变量法实证分析我国基本养老金待遇调整机制对基本养老金待遇稳定性的保障作用。研究发现,基本养老金待遇调整机制对基本养老金绝对待遇起着改善作用,却不能保障基本养老金相对待遇的稳定性。同时,在绝对待遇条件下,待遇调整机制对基本养老金名义待遇的保障显著大于对实际待遇的保障作用;东部、中部和西部地区的待遇调整对基本养老金待遇稳定性的保障存在显著差异,呈中部、西部和东部依次递减趋势。政策建议是,我国基本养老金待遇调整应该将实际工资增长率纳入调整参数;不同地区应该采取因地制宜的调整措施,并建立基本养老金待遇调整评估机制。
Theoretically,whether the basic pension adjustment mechanism of China can guarantee the stability of pensioners’ basic pension is ambiguous,and the effect of the same mechanism is not simplex with different environment. Based on Chinese provincial panel data during 2002- 2012,this paper analysis the effect of basic pension adjustment mechanism on the stability of the basic pension using strumental variable estimation. We find that the adjustment mechanism have effectively guaranteed the stability of the absolute level of pensioners ’ basic pension. And,the effect of the mechanism for the name pension is higher than the effect for the actual pension under the condition of the absolute level. Also,we find that there is significantly difference of the basic pension adjustment mechanism among three major areas of China. We suggest that it is necessary for us to adjust the pensioners ’ basic pension compare with real wages,and establish appropriate adjustment mechanisms and effective evaluation systems for different areas.
出处
《人口与经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第5期100-114,共15页
Population & Economics
关键词
养老金指数化
调整机制
基本养老保险
退休职工
indexed pension
pension adjustment mechanism
basic pension system
pensioners
