摘要
某些8级以上地震具有在同一经线和同一纬线上成组交替发生的特点。在此认识的基础上应用"黄金分割数"探讨了8级地震的空间关联现象。结果发现8级地震具有空间关联特征,其关联特征可以用"黄金分割数"定量描述。据此建立了"黄金分割预测模型",并对昆仑山口西8 1级地震后的下一次8级地震的发生区域进行了预测。中国大陆及周边的M≥734级地震有25年的复发周期,这种复发周期既有较小范围的转移,也有较大范围的转移。由此预测下次8级地震将发生在2022年前后。
The earthquakes with magnitude 8 or greater characterized by the fact that they occur alternately on a same longitude and latitude. According to this knowledge, golden mean is used to discuss the spatial correlation of earthquake with magnitude 8. It shows that the earthquakes of magnitude 8 are correlated in space and this phenomenon can be depicted quantitatively by use of golden mean. An earthquake prediction model by golden mean is developed in this paper. It is used to predict the location of the next magnitude 8 earthquake following the magnitude 8.1 earthquake in the west of Kunlunshan mountain. The results show that, in China and its surroundings, recurrence interval of earthquake with magnitude equal to or greater than 7 3/4 is 25 years. This interval may change in small or large range. It is predicted that the next magnitude 8 earthquake would take place after 2022.
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
2004年第3期86-91,共6页
Journal of Catastrophology
关键词
8级地震
空间关联
黄金分割
复发周期
中国大陆
magnitude 8 earthquake
spatial correlation
golden mean
recurrence interval
continent of China
