摘要
中国 1 997年开始出现的通货紧缩的根源在于长期以来实行的高积累政策 ,而高积累的背后是经济增长的质量不佳和投资效率差。在长期的高积累政策下 ,居民的收入和消费水平不断受到压抑 ,但消费需求不足的矛盾一直被过于旺盛的投资需求所掩盖。消费不足导致中国的生产过剩时代过早到来 ,过剩又导致企业效益下滑进而导致投资急剧萎缩 ,有效需求不足的矛盾显现出来并引发通货紧缩。通货紧缩的深层次原因决定了这一压力将是中国经济今后的一个长期矛盾 ,因此需要将短期的刺激政策与中期改革目标和长期增长目标协调起来 ,着眼于提高增长质量和投资效率从而改变高积累政策。
Analyzing the deflation in China that started in 1977, the paper argues that the main causes lie in artificially depressed consumption resulting from the high accumulation policy put in place in the early 1980s. This high accumulation was closely connected to inefficient investment and the poor quality if rapid economic growth. The mechanism of transition from inflation to deflation is analyzed in an AD AS framework. The paper concludes that deflation cannot be solved merely by expansionary measures to stimulate demand, and that the pressure of deflation will exist in the Chinese economy for a long time to come. A correct macroeconomic policy is to lower deflationary pressure through measures such as lowering the accumulation rate, eliminating redundant production capability and improving the efficiency of investment and growth. It is important at present for the government to coordinate its policies of short term adjustment with its mid term reform and long term growth.
出处
《中国社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2001年第6期42-53,共12页
Social Sciences in China
