摘要
利用有关水文气象观测资料、史料和树轮资料,对黑河山区汇流区降水近50年来的变化特征及其与全球气候变暖的对应关系、变化的可能成因及变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明:黑河山区汇流区降水对全球气候变暖响应比较明显,近50年来黑河山区汇流区降水随全球气温升高呈缓慢增加的趋势。由于西太平洋副热带高压与全球气温变化有着密切的关系,而西太平洋副热带高压的增强和扩大有利于东亚夏季风向北推进至更北,从而使祁连山中西部降水增加。因此,总体来说,全球气候的变暖有利于黑河山区汇流区降水的增加。目前,黑河山区汇流区正处于1980年代开始的历史上有资料记载以来的第5个温暖期和第3个暖湿期,预计在相当一段时期内,黑河山区汇流区降水将随着全球气候的进一步变暖,继续维持这种缓慢增长的状况。
Based on precipitation observational data at the weather stations in the mountain drainage basin of the Heihe River and historical material and tree growth ring record in the recent 50 years , the variation characteristics, possible causes and trends on the multi-yearly mean precipitation in the region are analyzed. The results show the response of the precipitation in the region to global climate warming is obvious, so the precipitation in the region presents a little increasing trend. Because the subtropical high of west Pacific is closly related to the global air temperature change, and the strengthening and expanding of subtropical high of west Pacific is of advantage for East Asian summer monoon moving forward to north or even more, which will bring on the increase of precipitation in the mid-and-west parts of the Qilian mountain. Therefore, as a whole, the global climate warming is favourable for the increase of precipitation in the mountain drainage basin of Heihe river. The climate of the mountain drainage basin of the Heihe River is just in the fifth warm periods or the third warm-humid periods in the histrial data records at present and it began from 1980′s. We forecast that the precipitation in the mountain drainage basin of Heihe river with the further warming of the global climate will continously maintain the slow increase in the future some years.
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第5期723-727,共5页
Plateau Meteorology
基金
中国科学院创新工程重大项目(KZCX1 10 06
KZCX1 10 03 01)资助
关键词
黑河
山区汇流区
全球气候变暖
Heihe River
Mountain drainage basin
Global climate warming
