摘要
用GM(1,1)模型预测短期负荷虽具有很好的精确性,但对于波动性较大的高峰负荷,它的预测精度比较低,而马尔可夫模型可以克服负荷波动较大的局限性。因此将二者结合起来形成灰色马尔可夫模型,并对山东某地区高峰负荷进行预测。应用表明,该模型切实可行,预测结果的精确度很高。
Using GM(1,1) model to predict short-period load has good accuracy, but to the high waving peak load, its accuracy is low. Markov model can overcome this defection, so combine CM(1,1) with Markov model to predict peak-load of an area in Shangdong province. Result proves that the model is practicable and had a high accuracy.
出处
《电力需求侧管理》
2004年第6期13-15,共3页
Power Demand Side Management
