摘要
土地利用系统是由自然、经济、社会子系统耦合而成的复杂巨系统。本文以系统论为指导,在科学设置评价指标体系,合理界定指标权重和指标阈值的基础上,针对土地利用系统本身的多维性、复杂性以及土地可持续利用内涵的抽象性与模糊性,引入模糊综合评判法对黄淮海平原4个县域土地可持续利用系统状态进行定量评价,评价结果与县域实际基本相符。一级评判结果表明:黄淮海4个县域土地利用系统处于非持续状态,而经济子系统均处于可持续状态;二级综合评判结果表明,除禹城土地利用系统处于可持续状态外,其它3个县域的土地利用系统均处于非持续状态。其中,水土地资源的稀缺已成为各县域土地利用系统可持续发展的瓶颈因素。评价结果也表明,模糊综合评判法由于抛弃了"是"与"非"的二值逻辑,为复杂系统的状态评价提供了规范化的数学框架,运用该方法进行县域土地可持续利用状态评价是适宜的、可行的。
Since land use system is composed of natural,economic and social factors, system theory is adopted in this study. In this paper, a set of indicator system for sustainable land use that matches well with regional characteristic is presented, and then the weigh value and threshold of indictors are defined. In view of the multidimension and complexity of land system itself, also the abstraction and blur of sustainable land use, this thesis applies the method of 'fuzzy synthetical evaluation' to sustainable land use state evaluation of four counties with similar natural conditions in Huanghuaihai Plain. The evaluation results well reflect the sustainable land use state of four counties. The primary synthetical evaluation results indicate that the resources subsystems of land use systems in four counties are not sustainable, while all the economic subsystems are sustainable. The secondary synthetical evaluation results show that except for Yucheng County, the land use system of the other three counties are not sustainable, the scarcity of land and water resources is a main reason for that. The evaluation results also illuminate that fuzzy synthetical evaluation abandons the twovalued logic which enables intermediate assessment between one state and anther state, so applying the method to sustainable land use state evaluation is more scientific and accurate, the method provides a formal mathematical framework for assess sustainable land use system state.
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第6期410-413,共4页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
基金
国家"十五"科技攻关课题"黄淮海平原高产区优质高效农业结构模式与技术研究"(课题编号:2001BA508B01)。
关键词
土地可持续利用
状态评价
阈值
模糊综合评判
sustainable land use
state evaluation
threshold
fuzzy synthetical evaluation
