摘要
目的 :本研究试图将灰色模型应用于南方部队人群病毒性肝炎的预测。方法 :应用灰色模型和 EXCEL 将灰色模型在计算机上编程 ,对广州军区 1992年～ 2 0 0 1年病毒性肝炎的发病率资料进行预测值与实测值的比较 ,从而 ,判断灰色模型在影响因素较稳定的传染病预测中的价值。结果 :应用灰色模型对广州军区病毒性肝炎的发病率资料作预测 ,实测值与预测值的误差较小为 0 .2 ,是实际值均数的 14 .3% ,预测结果的精度属合格。结论 :灰色模型可应用于部队人群病毒性肝炎的预测 。
Objective:To predict incidence of virus hepatitis in military personnel of Guangzhou command.Methods:Incidence rates of virus hepatitis in military personnel of Guangzhou command are pridicted by Grey Dynamic Model in terms of the data of epidemic character of virus hepatitis in this region from 1992 to 2001.Then the predictive values and actual values were compared.Results:The average error between predictive value and actual value was 0.2 and it was 14.3% of the mean of actual value.Conclusion:The Grey Dynamic Model is a valuable tool for prediction of virus hepatitis in military personnel.
出处
《现代预防医学》
CAS
2004年第1期18-20,共3页
Modern Preventive Medicine
