摘要
本文对中国林业发展经济周期进行初步研究。根据经济周期理论,采用线性差分方程及限定记忆递推算法对我国林业产值进行动态预测。在模型噪声为有色噪声的状况下,根据 Tally 原理变为白噪声,有利于提高预测精度。
Based on economic cycle theory,the dynamic forecast of forestry output values in China was made by using the linear difference equation and fixed memory recurrence meth- od.When we turn the noise of model from coloured into white according to the Tally princi- ple,the precision of forecast can be increased.
出处
《山东农业大学学报（自然科学版）》
CSCD
1993年第3期316-322,共7页
Journal of Shandong Agricultural University：Natural Science Edition
关键词
经济周期
林业产值
动态预测
economic cycle
output value
noise
linear difference equation
