摘要
为研究本地区短期气候预测方法 ,利用山东 80个代表站夏季平均气温、降水量资料和NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料 (1961～ 2 0 0 1年 ) ,分析了夏季平均气温年际变化的气候特征、冷暖夏的环流形势及夏季风与气温的关系。结果表明 :EOF第一模态几乎反映了整个温度场的时空变化特征 ;夏季气温标准化距平年际变化显著 ,有弱线性增温趋势 ;极端冷、暖夏大气环流形势差异明显 ,显著差异区在亚欧 北太平洋地区 ,冷夏年中高纬度欧亚大陆存在正欧亚—太平洋 (EUP)型遥相关 ,东亚地区有负太平洋—日本 (PJ)型波列 ,暖夏年反之。东亚夏季风强弱与山东夏季气温关系密切 ,强 (弱 )夏季风时 ,易造成山东暖 (冷 )夏 ;同期降水对气温有负反馈 ,对气温升高有一定的抑制作用。
Based on the monthly average reanalysis data on general circulation from the NCEP/NCAR (1961～1998) and the summertime average air temperature and 117 precipitation data for 41 years (1961～2001) from eighty meteorological stations in Shandong Province, the interannual variation characteristics of temperature during summer is discussed. The main conclusions are as follows: The first EOF eigenvector has almost shown all the variation characteristics of the temperature field. The interannual fluctuations are remarkable, with a weak linear increase. There are marked differences in summertime general circulation between the warmer and colder years. The region of marked difference lies in Eurasia and the North Pacific. In summers with negative temperature anomalies there is a positive Europe-Pacific (EUP) telecorrelation pattern in the mid-high latitudes over Eurasia and a negative Pacific-Japan (PJ) wave-train in East Asia. The situation is reversed in summers with positive temperature anomalies. This indicates that the summertime interannual variation in Shandong Province is not a local phenomena, but is the result of large scale general circulation anomalies causing large range temperature anomalies. In addition, the analyses results also show that the East Asia summer monsoon is closely related to summertime temperatures, and a stronger (weaker) summer monsoon causes a warmer (colder) summer in Shandong Province. Precipitation in the same period has a negative feedback to summertime temperatures.
出处
《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第1期13-19,共7页
Periodical of Ocean University of China
基金
山东省气象局重点科研项目"山东冬
夏季气温异常及其成因的分析研究"项目 (2 0 0 4sdqxz1 97)资助
关键词
山东
夏季气温
年际变化
大气环流异常
Shandong Province
summertime air temperatures
interannual variation
general circulation anomaly
