摘要
为了解决高新技术产业风险投资过程中涉及多阶段、多因素、多主体的动态风险估测困难问题,根据模糊数学评价原理构造了多阶段多层次风险综合估测模型。该模型在分阶段对风险因素及风险承担行为主体进行识别的基础上,对各个阶段依次进行单个行为主体和多个行为主体两次风险综合估测,并通过风险评语经验量值的引入,计算出各个阶段的风险发生时对整个风险投资过程的影响程度。最后,通过案例分析,说明该模型在风险投资过程中对动态风险估测的实际应用。该模型能适用于类似的其他动态风险估测问题。
It studies comprehensive dynamic risk estimation for capital venture involving multi-stages and multi-stakeholders. A multi-stages and multi-layers comprehensive risk estimation model is established according to evaluation principle of fuzzy mathematics. The model calculates each stage’s risk influence on total capital venture,through comprehensively estimating risk in succession for single stakeholder and multi-stakeholders and the application of leading experience value of risk evaluation. Analysis of a case shows how the model to be applied in estimating dynamic risk for capital venture. This model can be applied in other similar dynamic risk estimation problems.
出处
《研究与发展管理》
CSSCI
2004年第6期68-73,共6页
R&D Management
关键词
风险投资
动态风险估测
模糊估测模型
capital venture
dynamic risk estimation
fuzzy estimation model
