摘要
目的分析预测江苏省水碘分布,探讨空间分布和空间自相关性及局部自相关性。方法以2003年江苏省各乡镇的水碘中位数为依据,以江苏省数字地图为背景,在ArcViewGIS(地理信息系统)软件支持下,建立全省水碘空间分布图,并对水碘的空间自相关性和以县为单位的水碘的局部空间自相关性进行了分析。结果江苏1134个乡镇水碘数据呈正偏态分布,有69个乡镇(6.08%)的水碘中位数在150μg/L以上,主要分布于徐州地区,预测其接壤地区亦有可能存在高碘问题;空间自相关分析表明江苏省水碘分布存在中度空间正相关,徐州丰县、沛县和铜山地区自相关系数MoranLISA值>5,存在高碘水源聚集现象。结论江苏省水碘分布存在空间聚集现象,局部空间分布同时存在空间聚集性和空间异质性,说明江苏各地环境中水碘有很明显差异,对水碘水平不同地区应采用不同的补碘或降碘措施。
Objective To describe the spatial distribution and spatial pattern of water iodine in Jiangsu province. Methods A set of dataset was set up using the information collected in 75 counties of Jiangsu province and linked to electronic maps of Jiangsu province with ArcView GIS 3.3. The spatial distribution of water iodine was mapped under different colors with the contour lines by 50 μg/L. The global Moran' I and Local Moran' I indicators were calculated to estimate the spatial autocorrelation of water iodine. Results The distribution of water iodine value in 1 134 towns in Jiangsu province was positively skewed. There were 69(6.08%) towns whose medians of water iodine were above 150 μg/L. They were located in counties in Xuzhou based on the interpolated surface of water iodine. The Moran' I statistic of water iodine was 0.56 (P < 0.01), indicating positive moderate autocorrelation and reflected that water iodine in Jiangsu province was significantly clustered. The values of Local Moran's I statistic at Feng, Pei and Tongshan counties in Xuzhou city were above 5, showing that water iodine in these areas had higher local spatial autocorrelation, suggesting adjacent counties had similar water iodine values to each other. However there were some areas where Local Moran's I was negative, showing that these areas had different water iodine values from each other, suggesting the existence of spatial heterogeneity. Conclusions There exists significantly spatial clustering of distribution of water iodine in Jiangsu. Regional water iodine concentrations is of homogeneity and heterogeneity. Significant difference in water iodine in Jiangsu province in outer environment indicates that specific strategies should be implemented to either elevate or reduce iodine intake in areas with low or high levels of water iodine.
出处
《中国地方病学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第1期101-104,共4页
Chinese Jouranl of Endemiology
基金
国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(30230330)
江苏省医学135工程重点人才研究基金资助项目(RC2003090)
关键词
碘
环境
地理信息系统
预测
Iodine
Environment
Geographic information system
Forecasting
