摘要
城市年用水量是一个齐次马尔可夫链。根据某城市统计年鉴中近 2 0a的用水量 ,建立一步转移概率矩阵 ,通过马尔可夫链的计算机仿真 ,预测了今后 5a的用水量。同时 ,对仿真结果进行了精度估计。
A city's yearly water consumption is a homogeneous Markov chain. According to nearly 20 years' water consumption in a city's statistic yearbook, the paper sets up one step transfer probability matrix and the computer simulation model of Markov chain. By the model, the future 5 years' water consumption is forecasted and its accuracy is estimated.
关键词
城市用水量
计算机仿真
马尔可夫链
预测
city's water consumption
computer simulation
Markov chain
forecast
