摘要
自回归模型属于线性平稳模型,只能描述平稳序列的统计特性。当水文序列具有季节性变化时,其统计特性则随季节而变,即随时间而变。文章探讨了季节性自回归模型运用中需注意的一些问题,并将其用来做葛洲坝入库月径流预报,取得了较好的效果。
The autoregressive model is a kind of linear-steady-models.so it just describes the statistics characteristic of steady array.When the hydrology array changes according to the seasons,the statistics characteristic also changes,that is,it changes with time.This paper approaches some problems noticed in the application of autoregressive model,and introduces its application in the monthly runoff forecast of the gezhouba and gaining better effictiveness.
出处
《吉林水利》
2005年第1期26-27,30,共3页
Jilin Water Resources
基金
中国长江三峡工程开发总公司<三峡数字梯级电力生产决策支持系统>项目。
关键词
季节性自回归模型
月径流预报
葛洲坝
Seasonal autoregressive model
forecasting monthly runoff
Gezhouba
