摘要
本文探索一种对世界重大比赛的奥运会项目成绩采用追踪统计和综合评定,对实力采用对比分析和专家咨询的综合评估预测方法;对第25届奥运会的金牌走向、诸强实力格局、金牌和名次进行了中、近期预测,为领导决策提供了参考。通过巴塞罗那奥运会验证,可看出该方法:1,适合体育比赛的特点,较科学可行。2,对金牌的走向、前12名的实力格局的评估分析、金牌和名次的预测基本和实际相符。3,和国外同期预测相比,准确率较高。
In order to supply reference for decision-making,a comprehensive assessment method which is based on traceStatistics,comprehensive assessment on the results of Olympic sports,comparative analysis of the strength,and expertsconsultation has been used to make medium term and short term predictions on the direction of gold medals at the 25thOlympic Games and on the actual strength,gold medals possession and standings of the major sports powers.From the testof the Barcelona Olympic Games,we can see:a.This method is suitable for the characteristics of sports competitions.Itis relatively scientific and practical.b.The assessment and analysis of the direction of gold medals and the actual strengthof the first 12 countries largely tally with facts.c.Our prediction is more accurate compared with those made in the sameperiod by foreign counterparts.
出处
《体育科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
1993年第6期4-9,共6页
China Sport Science
关键词
奥运会
金牌
名次
预测
Olympic Games,gole medols,standings,predicting met■od
