摘要
运用多阶段Theil系数嵌套分解法和小波分析法, 从空间尺度和时间尺度两个方面研究中国区域经济差异问题。基本结论是: 从省级行政区域单元来看, 东部省际之间差异的变化趋势和全国的变化趋势基本是一致的, 中部和西部省际之间的差异一直相对较小, 而且变化趋势较为缓慢, 但是三大地带之间差异一直在增大。从地级行政区域单元来看, 省内差异是全国整体差异的重要构成部分, 省内差异对于全国整体差异的贡献比三大地带之间差异和省际差异的贡献显著得多。从时间尺度来看, 在大时间尺度 (譬如 24年 ) 水平上, 中国区域经济差异的变化过程, 基本上服从“倒U型”曲线规律, 但是小时间尺度 (譬如 23年或 22年)水平上来看, 则呈现为一条由几个倒U与U型曲线首尾相接的“复合倒U型曲线”。
By using the multi-stage nested Theil decomposition method and the wavelet analysis of the Theil index sequence, this paper studies the spatial and temporal scales of regional economic disparities in China from 1952 to 2000. The main conclusions are: (1) the regional economic disparities in China, including the disparities within-province, between-provinces, within-region (the eastern, central and western regions) and between-regions, have existed since 1952. (2) The first stage decomposition of Theil index shows that the dynamic trend of disparity in the eastern region is consistent with that of whole China. The disparity in the central and western regions remains small, and the evolution is rather slow. The disparity between the three regions has been continuously increasing. (3) The second stage decomposition of Theil index reveals that the within-province disparities is the most significant component of all in the overall regional inequalities, which is more significant than that of the between-province and between-region disparities components, constituting the important part of the overall regional inequalities. In addition, the influence of within-province disparities in the eastern region on the overall regional inequalities is more significant than that of in the other two regions, and, the influence in the western region is more significant than that of in the central region. (4) Based on the decomposition and approximation of Theil index sequence using wavelets by different time scales, we elicit a conclusion that the evolutionary process of regional economic disparity in China is not a simple inverted U-shaped pattern but a compound of several U-shaped patterns. The result tells us the evolutionary process of regional economic disparity in China does follow the inverted U-shaped patterns a time scale of 16 years. That is to say that the regional inequality tends to rise in the first stage of economic development, and falls slowly over the peak in the second stage of economic development. However, if we shorten the time scale to 8 or 4 years, then a link of several U shaped patterns will appear.
出处
《地理研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第1期57-68,共12页
Geographical Research
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目 (03BJL027)
国家自然科学基金资助项目 (40371092)
