摘要
选用长江三峡水库区间流域的历史雨洪资料与短期定量降水预报资料,编制三峡水库区间流域洪水预报模型,并将区间定量降水预报与区间洪水预报模型相耦合,研究了预见期降水对洪水预报的影响。提出了一个随机降水模型,随机生成500组序列作为降水预报值输入到区间洪水预报模型,并以均值作为预报结果发布。方案比较结果表明,考虑预见期内的降水预报可提高三峡水库的洪水预报精度。
By using the historical data of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), a flood forecasting model for TGR intervening basin was proposed and established, with which the quantitative precipitation predicted data was coupled to study the influence of flood forecasting accuracy. A stochastic precipitation generator was developed to generate 500 precipitation series as the inputs of proposed flood forecasting model. The mean values of the forecasted discharges were used as the final forecasted results. It showed that the proposed flood forecasting model coupled with the stochastic precipitation generator could increase the TGR flood forecasting precision.
出处
《长江科学院院报》
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第1期9-12,20,共5页
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50179026)
国家重大基础研究前期专项资助项目(2003CCA00200)
关键词
三峡水库
洪水预报
定量降水预报
随机降水模型
Three Gorges Reservoir
flood forecasting
quantitative precipitation prediction
stochastic precipitation generator
