摘要
利用 T42L9全球谱模式,在相同初始场的条件下,将不同的 SST 作为外强迫源输入模式,其一个月延伸预报的结果表明,SST 的变化对第三旬的环流预报影响比较大,但对于不同的初值其影响是不同的,对于比较稳定的初值,不同的海温场对月平均环流的影响较小;而对于不稳定的初始场,则影响较大.同时指出了500hPa 高度预报场的均方根误差的增长在中纬度主要与大气中的斜压不稳定有关,如果斜压不稳定度大,则误差随时间增长快;斜压不稳定度小,情况则相反.
In order to study the effect of SST variation on monthly mean circulation,a few nu-merical experiments of forecast integrations to 31 days for the different forced SST arecarried out by using the T42L9 model.The results show that the influence of SST varia-tion on the third dekad mean circulation predicted is rather substantial.Furthermore,the influence is inconspicuous for stable initial value,but it is considerably great moreinfluence for unstable initial value.It is pointed out that RMSE (root mean squareerror) of 500hPa height increases rapidly while the baroclinic instability of atmosphere islarger,and vice versa.In short,it shows that results of DERF (dynamic extendedrange forecast) depend mainly on the initial values,internal instability of atmosphereand external forcings,etc.
出处
《应用气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
1993年第A12期45-49,共5页
Journal of Applied Meteorological Science
基金
国家基础性关键项目<气候动力学和气候预测理论的研究>
国家气象局85重点项目"长期天气预报理论和方法研究"课题
关键词
海洋
温度
大气环流
数值试验
SST variation
Monthly mean circulation
Numerical experiment
Baroclinic instability
