摘要
通过应用灰色系统理论和方法,对彭泽县1960~1986年第三代棉红铃虫百株孵量构成的离散数列进行数据处理,用微分方程进行拟合,并建立棉红铃虫灰色系统GM(1,1)长期灾变预测模型:x(t)=53.60952e0.17851(i-1)1.97246e0.03736(i-1)-3.56687e-0.19052(i-1)-46.93949。应用该模型进行回测和预测,回测符合率可达100%,1987~1991年的预测结果与实况相吻合。
Grey-system theory and method were used in this study. After the discrete data composed by 100-plant egg amount of the third generation of P. gosstypiella in Pengze, Jiangxi province during the years of 1960 ~1986 were processed and simulated with differential equation, a long-term predictive model GM(1,1 ) of grey catastrophe was set up as X(t)=53.60952e0.17815(i-1) +1.97246e0.0373(i-1) - 3.56687e-0.19052(i-5) - 46.93949. The coincidence rate of model forecast with historic data came to 100% in test. Years in which pink bollworm would heavily occur in Pengze during 1987~2000 are predicted in the paper. The forecasted results for 1987 ~ 1991 are completely coincided with the actual occurrence of the pest in each year.
出处
《昆虫知识》
CSCD
1994年第2期77-81,共5页
Entomological Knowledge
关键词
棉红铃虫
灰色系统
预测模型
grey system, catastrophe predication model, the third generation pink bollworm (Pectinophora gossypiella)