摘要
以均值生成函数和双评分准则为基础，建立了正交筛选预测模型，模拟预测气温和降水序列的自然变化规律．武汉和宜昌两站的应用结果表明，模型的拟合精度高，把预测结果同ＧＣＡ模型的输出进行叠加，得到未来气候的变化情形，作为研究气候变化对水文水资源影响和适应对策的依据．
Climate Change will alter the hydrologic balance and waterresources,and affect flood protection,hydroelectricity generation,navigation,water suPPly etc.On the bans of mean generation function andcouple score criterion,a orthogonaliation selection and prediCtion model isdeveloped and used to simulate and predict long--term annual mean airtemperature and an-unal precipitation series.The application resultS at Wuhanand Yichang stations agree well with the observed data series. The futureclimatic scenarias are obtained by the completion of predicted results andGCM model outputs,and used to stady the impact of climatic changes anhydrologic cycle and water resources.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
1994年第2期126-131,共6页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家八五攻关课题
关键词
气温
降水序列
长期预测
time series, climate change,mean generation function,couple score criterion,long--term prediction.
