摘要
提出城市适度人口规模不是一个静态的数值 ,而是动态的过程。不是一个先验的数值 ,而是系统决定的综合结果。建立了一个适度人口规模的概念性框架 ,即EFL模型 ,就是说合理和适度的人口规模是与之相联系的资源环境因素、功能和经济方式、空间区位状态共同决定的结果。生态系统的变动 ,综合决定了一定时期、一定标准下的城市人口适度规模 ,并决定了这一适度规模的变化趋势。基于这一思路 ,讨论了影响上海人口规模变动的积极因素和阻碍因素 ,从资源环境变化、城市功能变化和城市空间变化三个方面对上海适度人口规模的变动趋势作了基本判断 ,提出上海人口规模将出现先上升再下降的趋势。根据动态适度人口规模的观点 ,对城市人口综合调控和城市管理的有关问题提出了一些建议。
The author concludes the optimal population is not a static value and a pre-decided number, but a dynamic process and a synthetic outcome determined by dynamic process. A conceptual EFL model has been put forward to explain the determinants of Dynamic Optimal Population (DOP), which is the joint effect by environment, function and location at different stages and with different criteria. Taking Shanghai as an example, this article analyses the positive factors and negative factors for population changes, and suggests some preliminary judgments on city's population development, DOP in shanghai will show a curve of′Upward First and Downward Later′. Based on theoretic analysis on dynamic optimal population, this paper also discusses its implications on urban management in Shanghai.
出处
《市场与人口分析》
CSSCI
2005年第1期22-28,共7页
Market & Demographic Analysis
