摘要
目的 :探讨气候因子与肾综合征发生及鼠密度之间的关系 ,以期建立相应的预测模型 ;对所建立的模型及肾综合征出血热监测指标体系进行评价。方法 :收集 1992～ 2 0 0 1年广州市月份分布的气候因素以及肾综合征出血热发病数和鼠密度监测资料 ,采用SPSS 10. 0作因子分析和回归分析 ,并进行相应的统计建模。结果 :各气候因素间存在较大的相关性 ;气候因子与肾综合征发生数及鼠密度间的回归预测模型提示 3者之间存在一定的关联。结论 :目前的监测数据尚不能有效地预测肾综合征发生趋势 ;为建立一种有效的预测预报信息系统 ,需对目前的出血热监测系统进行客观评价 ,使其真正成为一种灵敏 ,高效的预测预报系统。
Objective:To build the forecast model through explor ing the rela tionship among the climatic indices,the HFRS and the mice density;and then evalu ate the f orecast model and the indices system of HFRS surveillance compreh ensively.Methods:Based on the data collection for the climate, H FRS and the mic e density surveillance each month from 1992 to 2001 in Guangzhou city,factorial analysis and regression analysis methods were adopted and correspond ing statistic model was built by the statistic software of SPSS 10.0.R esults:The relativity among all the climatic indices was strong;the regre ssio n and forecast model among the climatic indices, the HFRS and the mice density i ndicates that the relationship among them was limited or infirmness.Con clusion:The incidence trend of HFRS couldnt be forecasted effectively by the present s urveillance data and the forecast model; In order to construct an effective fore cast system, it needs evaluate the present surveillance system for HFRS imperson ally and then make it as a sensitive and efficient forecast system.
出处
《现代预防医学》
CAS
北大核心
2005年第3期205-206,222,共3页
Modern Preventive Medicine
