摘要
交通量预测是道路交通规划与路面设计的基础,由于影响交通量生成和增长的因素具有层次复杂性、关系模糊性、动态变化随机性和指标数据不确定性等,从而导致交通量的预测结果与路面实际运营数量之间有较大差异.本文利用改进的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型和马尔柯夫随机过程理论,建立了交通量的灰色马尔柯夫预测模型.实例计算分析表明,该模型具有较强的适用性,预测得到的交通量数据具有较高的精度和可靠度.
Generally, the layout and scale of a highway is designed on the basis of the traffic volume prediction. Because the influencing factors of the traffic volume prediction are indeterminate, it leads to a big discrepancy between the traffic volume prediction and the reality. This paper has established and applied the model of (GM(1,1)) and Markov to forecast the traffic volume. Comparing with some current models to some extend, the prediction result of grey-markov model has fair accurate and well applicable.
出处
《河南科学》
2005年第2期247-250,共4页
Henan Science
基金
河南省教育厅基础研究计划项目(20015800001)
