3[1]Meyer M.A.,Leaming from coarse information:Biased Contests and Career Profiles[J].Reviews of Economic Studies.1991.58(1):15-41.
4[5]Sicherman,N.,and Galor,O.,A Theory of Career Mobility[J].Journal of PoIitical Economy,1990,98:169-192.
5[6]Anderson,J.C.,Milkovic,h,G.T.,and Tsui,A.,A Model of In-tra-organizational Mobility[J].Academy of Management Review,1981,6:529-538.
6[7]Langer,E.,and Roth,J.,Heads I Win,Tails It's Chance:The Illu-sion of Control as a Function of the Sequence of Outcomes in a Pure-ly Chance Task[J].Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,1975,(32):951-955.
7[8]Taylor,S.,and Brown J.D.,Illusion and Weu-Being:A Social Psychological Perspective on Mental Health[J].Psychological Bul-letin,1988,(103):193-210.
8[9]Fischhoff,B.,Slovic,P.and Lichtenstein,S.,Knowing with Cer-tainty:The Appropriateness of Extreme Confidence[J].Journal of Experimental Psychology Human Perception and Perfbmance,1977,(3):552-564.
9[10]Alpen,M.and Raiffa,H.,A Pmgress Repon on the Training of Probability Assessors,in D.Kahneman,P.Slovic and A.Tversky,eds.,Judgement under Uncertainty:Heuristic and Biases[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1982.
10[11]Griffjn D.,A.Tversky.The Weighing of Evidence and the Deter-minants of Confidence[J].Cognitive Psychology,1992,24:411-435.
