摘要
本文运用实证的方法在对2004年大选的形势和特点进行分析的基础上,对布什和共和党获胜的原因、大选结果对美国政局及政党和选举政治的影响,以及布什第二任期内政外交政策走向进行了探讨。文章认为,2004年大选是布什和共和党取得全面胜利的一次选举。受九一一事件和伊拉克战争的影响,此次总统选举呈现出许多新的特点,如全国政治议题和选举议题发生重大变化、道德价值观成为决定大选胜负的关键等。共和党获得全面选举胜利从根本上来说,是“新政联盟”解体以来美选举政治长期变化的结果,也是美国社会日趋保守化的反映。2004年选举结果的意义在于:它预示着保守主义继续得势将是今后四年美政治发展的基本趋向,再次巩固了共和党在总统和国会选举中的多数地位,强化了总统职位的权势和影响力,加剧了国会内两党的斗争。但这是否是一次“关键性选举”,仍要看两年后的中期选举,特别是2008年大选共和党是否继续维持一党同时控制白宫和国会参众两院的局面。
On the basis of the analysis of the environment and features of the 2004 presidential election with the help of scientific method, the article discusses the causes for the victory of Bush and the Republican Party, the impact of the victory on American political environment, parties and elective politics and the orientation of domestic and foreign policies in Bush's second term. The article holds that the 2004 election was an all-round victory for Bush and the Republican Party. In essence, this is the result of a long-term evolution of American election politics since the disintegration of “New Deal Alliance” and also a reflection of the growing conservative trend in American society. The significance of the election lay in the fact that it signified that the gaining of strength of conservatism will be the basic trend for the coming four years. The election also consolidated the majority role of the Republican Party in Congress, strengthened the power and influence of the presidency and intensified partisan struggle in Congress. As to whether this election was a “crucial election,” we still need to see the result of the mid-term election in 2006 and especially the result of the general election in 2008, to see if the Republican Party will continue to maintain control of the presidency and the two chambers of Congress.
出处
《美国研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2005年第2期65-89,4-5,共27页
The Chinese Journal of American Studies
