摘要
目的分析青岛市脑梗死(CI)发病的时间变化规律,探讨青岛市气象因素对脑梗死CI发病的影响及其预测.方法收集青岛市1998年～2002年5年间4821例CI患者的发病时间及同期的气温、气压、相对湿度、风速等气象资料;圆分布分析探讨CI发病的时间规律,直线相关、多元逐步回归研究CI发病与气象因素之间的关系.结果(1)4821例CI患者中男性比例(55%)高于女性(45%)(x2=52.06,P＜0.01),男性发病年龄低于女性(男性67.7(10.8)岁,女性69.1(9.3岁),u=4.97,P＜0.01);(2)男、女性CI都在秋季高发,平均角所对应日期在10月(P＜0.05);(3)CI发病多见于高温、高气压、低湿度的气象条件(r=0.308,0.264,-0.370,P＜0.05),多元逐步回归筛选出来影响CI月发病人数的气象因素依次是月平均气压和月平均气温.结论气象因素是CI发病的影响因素,但由于较低的校正R2,故以气象因素为自变量的多元逐步回归方程不宜用来预测CI发病人数.
Objective To explore the monthly time distrbution characteristics of cerebral infarction (CI) in Qingdao and the relationship between CI and meteorological factors.Methods We collected the 4821 CI patients and meteorological data in Qingdao urban during 1998 to 2002.Circular distribution analysis was used to explore the time regulary of CI,Pearson correlation and multiple stepwise regression were used to examine the relationship between meteorological factors and CI.Results There were more male patients in CI patients (χ 2= 52.06 , P < 0.01 ) and lower occurrence age was noticed in male (male 67.7 ( 10.8 ) year,female 69.1 ( 9.3 ) year, u = 4.97 , P < 0.01 ).There was a trend of centralization in male and female CI occurrence with the mean angles in October ( P < 0.05 ).Pearson correlation analysis suggested that CI occurrence was higher with high temperature,high barometric pressure and low humidity situation ( r = 0.308 , 0.264 , -0.370 , P < 0.05 ).Multiple stepwise regression showed that the meteorological influentional factors of CI were monthly average barometric pressure and monthly average temperature.Conclusions The meteorological factors have an important rule in CI occurrence.However,due to the low adjusted R 2,the equation with only meteorological independent variables is not suitable for forecast.
出处
《卒中与神经疾病》
2005年第3期140-142,共3页
Stroke and Nervous Diseases
关键词
脑梗死
气象因素
发病
圆分布
直线相关
多元逐步回归
Cerebral infarction Meteorological factors Occurrence Circular distribution analysis Pearson correlation Multiple stepwise regression
