摘要
2004年初,中国政府对出口退税率进行结构性调整。一些新的行业变化是否已随之出现,对出口产品结构的优化作用是否已显现等问题成为人们关注的焦点。力图通过实证分析对此进行阐述,从而为此次政策调整起到积极的支持作用,也是对未来退税政策改革的超前探索。选用事件分析法,对高新技术产品、焦炭、服装等一些主要行业的出口月度数据进行实证研究。结果表明:1出口退税率下调后大部分行业的出口增速并没有出现大幅回落现象,而结构性调整对不同行业的影响差异较大;2高新技术产品、机电产品继续呈现高速增长态势;能源、原材料产品出口所受影响表现出较大的分化;一般性产品出口平稳增长,依然有相当强的竞争力,出口退税率下调的负面效应并未显现。
At the beginning of 2004, China adjusted the Export Tax Rebate (ETR) rates structurally. The impact of this adjustment on industrial changes and export mix optimization has been concerned widely. In this paper, this effect was studied through an empirical research of monthly export data from major industries, including high-tech products, coke, garments and so on, via an event-study analysis. Our empirical results showed that the growth rate of export does not slow down largely for most of the industries, and there exist great variations in the spillover effects of the structural adjustment on the industries after the ETR rate was reduced. Firstly, the electromechanical and high-tech products continue to embark on a strong momentum of rapid growth. Secondly, the energy sources and raw material exports respond differently to the tax adjustment. Thirdly, the general product exports are on a relatively stable rise because of their competitive advantage in global market, so the negative effects of rebate rate cut on them have not been clearly appeared.
出处
《管理学报》
2005年第4期417-421,共5页
Chinese Journal of Management
基金
国家自然科学创新研究群体基金资助项目(70221001)
关键词
出口退税
结构性调整
主要行业
差异
tax rebate
structural adjustment
major industries
diversity
