摘要
肿瘤死亡率与年龄、时间和出生队列之间存在一定的函数关系，用数学公式表达为ｍｉｊ＝ｅ￣ａｉ·ｅ￣ｂｊ·ｅ￣ｃｋ，其中ｍｉｊ为第ｉ年龄组第ｊ时间的死亡率，ａｉ为第ｉ层年龄，ｂｊ为第ｊ层时间，ｃｋ为第ｋ层出生队列。多数肿瘤死亡率与年龄、时间和出生队列呈对数线性关系，运算中将依变量ｙ和自变量ａ、ｂ、ｃ都取自然对数，用线性回归的方法求参数α、β＿（ａ）、β（ｂ）、β（ｃ），用ＥＸＰ（β）评价各个参数的作用大小。作者以一个监测点１９７０～１９８９年宫颈癌和胃癌的资料进行了上述分析，结果与观察的危险因素变动情况相符合。
he APC(age period
cohort analysis)model makes the assumption that the mortality mij in
a given age group and year is the (simple)product of three factors:
an age related factor ai,one period related factor bj and
one(birth)cohort related factor Ck:mij =e￣ai·e￣bj·e￣ck. By
taking the natural logarithm,a linear model results which can be
treated with fairly stan-dard statistics
techniques:ln(mij)=a_i+b_j+c_k. The mij data from observation data
are used to esti-mate α、β_1(a)、β_(b)、β_(c)by linear regression
method. The value of EXP(β)is to estimate the effect of each
variable. The APC model is consistent with carcinogenesis modeling of
molecular biology on tumour. The results of APC analysis for cervical
cancer,male and female stomach cancer show that the risk factors have
been changed.In fact,the risk factors of cervical cancer have been
de-creased since liberation,and the risk factor of stomach was
increased in the first period of sixty's. The analytic method used in
this paper will benefit the study on epidemiology and etiology of
Cancer.
出处
《中华流行病学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1995年第4期203-206,共4页
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
