摘要
旱涝灾害在我国是影响最大、也最为频繁的气候灾害。本文利用马尔科夫概型分析的原理和方法,在验证了我国旱涝空间型序列具有马尔科夫性质的基础上,计算出各状态的转移概率,进而分析了旱涝空间型序列的静态和动态结构,并揭示出旱涝空间型各状态演化的优势倾向。
In China, flood/drought disasters both are of the greatest influent degrees and distributing ranges, and most frequent. In this paper, by the Markovian probability model analysis, and on the basis of ensuring the significant Markovian quality of spatial-type series of flood/drought disaster in China, the transitional probability among spatial types was calculated, and the static and dynamic structures of spatial-type series were analyzed. Then, the main evolution trends of spatial types was brought to light.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
1995年第2期66-72,共7页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家"八五"科技重点攻关项目85-724-01成果
关键词
气象灾害
旱涝空间型
马氏概型分析
Meteorological disaster Brew disaster system Spatial types of flood/drought disasters Markovian probability model analysis
