摘要
本文借助于平稳时间序列的极值分布理论，对南京地区异常低温事件频次和强度建立统计模型。模拟该地区极端低温的频数分布，给出不同水平下低温事件发生次数的估计及平均强度，平均日期及其方美的推算值。试验结果表明，该类模型可以广泛地应用于气象极值规律研究，为能源、经济等部门提供应用气候参考依据。
The statistical model of frequency and intensity of anomalous microtherm events in Nanjing is established by means of the extreme value distribution theory of stationary time series. The anomalous microtherm frequency distribution is simulated. The estimate value of frequency of microtherm events at different level is calculated. Events mean intensity and mean date and its variance are given. It is indicated that this model can be extensively applied to the research of regulations of meteorological extrmes
出处
《气象科学》
CSCD
北大核心
1995年第3期281-287,共7页
Journal of the Meteorological Sciences
